Every year, the Aintree Grand National is billed as the “ultimate lottery.” But seasoned punters know different. While luck plays a part, the history books reveal that the race is won by a specific type of horse.
The “typical” National winner has evolved significantly over the last decade. The old wisdom of looking for a dour, plodding veteran with 10st on their back is dead. The modern Grand National is a classier, faster, and younger race.
To help you narrow down the 40-runner field, we’ve analyzed the last 15 runnings of the race (2010–2025, excluding the cancelled 2020 renewal) to build the ultimate profile of a Grand National winner.
🏁 The Verdict: The Perfect Profile
If you want the short answer before diving into the data, here is what the “perfect” modern Grand National winner looks like based on the last 15 renewals:
The Ideal Winner Profile
- Age: 8 or 9 years old.
- Weight: 10st 6lbs – 11st 8lbs (Class is now crucial).
- Days Since Last Run: 25 – 55 days (Fresh, but race-fit).
- Trainer: Based in Ireland (specifically Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott).
- Experience: Has run in a race over 3 miles; proven stamina is non-negotiable.
- Rating: Officially rated between 146 and 163.
1. Age: The Youth Revolution
For decades, the golden rule was to back experience. However, the modification of the fences and the shortening of the race distance (now 4m 2f) has turned this trend on its head.
- The Sweet Spot: 8 and 9-year-olds are now the dominant force. In the last 15 runnings, horses in this age bracket have won 10 times, including the 2025 winner Nick Rockett (aged 8).
- The “Old” Guard: We haven’t seen a winner aged 10 or older since Pineau De Re in 2014. That is a massive statistical shift.
- The 7-Year-Old Anomaly: Noble Yeats (2022) became the first 7-year-old winner since 1940. While he proves it’s possible, he remains an outlier.
The Takeaway: Avoid the teenagers. Focus your attention on the 8 and 9-year-olds who have the blend of maturity and youthful athleticism.
2. Weight & Class: “Weight Stops Trains” is a Myth
The old adage “weight stops trains” used to ring true at Aintree, but the compression of the handicap has changed the game. The quality of the race has skyrocketed.
- Class Prevails: We have seen 6 of the last 15 winners carry 11st 05lbs or more. This includes recent champions Nick Rockett (11-08), I Am Maximus (11-06), and Tiger Roll (11-05).
- The Floor: Conversely, “bottom weights” rarely win anymore. Only Auroras Encore (2013) and Minella Times (2021) carried less than 10st 6lbs to victory in this period.
- Official Rating: The winner is now almost exclusively a “Grade 1” or high-level handicap horse. You are looking for a horse rated 150+.
The Takeaway: Don’t be scared of a top-weight. If a horse is carrying 11st+, it’s because they are the best horse in the race. In the modern National, class acts often outjump and outgallop the lightweights.
3. The Irish Domination
The “Green Team” has strangled the life out of this race recently. If you are backing a British-trained horse, you are fighting a steep statistical hill.
- The Stat: 10 of the last 15 winners were trained in Ireland.
- The Powerhouses: Willie Mullins has now won two consecutive Nationals (I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett), joining Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead as the primary targets.
- The Exception: The only British-based yard to consistently disrupt this trend recently is Lucinda Russell (Scotland), with two wins (Corach Rambler, One For Arthur).
The Takeaway: Prioritize Irish runners—specifically from the Mullins or Elliott yards—or those from Lucinda Russell. Southern English trainers have a poor recent record.
4. Preparation: The “Freshness” Factor
How a trainer campaigns a horse in the months leading up to Aintree is critical. You want a horse that is race-fit, but not exhausted from a gruelling season.
- Days Since Last Run: The vast majority of winners ran within 55 days of the Grand National.
- The Cheltenham Factor: Many winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (about 3-4 weeks prior). Tiger Roll, Noble Yeats, and Corach Rambler all ran at Cheltenham before winning at Aintree.
- Avoid the “Shelved” Horses: Horses that haven’t run since Christmas rarely win. They need a “prep run” in February or March to clear the windpipes.
The Takeaway: Look for a horse that ran at the Cheltenham Festival (specifically in the Cross Country or Ultima Handicap) or had a prep run in mid-to-late February.
Summary of Winners (Last 15 Runnings)
| Year | Winner | Age | Weight | Odds | Trainer |
| 2025 | Nick Rockett | 8 | 11-08 | 33/1 | W. Mullins (IRE) |
| 2024 | I Am Maximus | 8 | 11-06 | 7/1 F | W. Mullins (IRE) |
| 2023 | Corach Rambler | 9 | 10-05 | 8/1 F | L. Russell (UK) |
| 2022 | Noble Yeats | 7 | 10-10 | 50/1 | E. Mullins (IRE) |
| 2021 | Minella Times | 8 | 10-03 | 11/1 | H. de Bromhead (IRE) |
| 2019 | Tiger Roll | 9 | 11-05 | 4/1 F | G. Elliott (IRE) |
| 2018 | Tiger Roll | 8 | 10-13 | 10/1 | G. Elliott (IRE) |
| 2017 | One For Arthur | 8 | 10-11 | 14/1 | L. Russell (UK) |
| 2016 | Rule The World | 9 | 10-07 | 33/1 | M. Morris (IRE) |
| 2015 | Many Clouds | 8 | 11-09 | 25/1 | O. Sherwood (UK) |
| 2014 | Pineau De Re | 11 | 10-06 | 25/1 | Dr. R. Newland (UK) |
| 2013 | Auroras Encore | 11 | 10-03 | 66/1 | S. Smith (UK) |
| 2012 | Neptune Collonges | 11 | 11-06 | 33/1 | P. Nicholls (UK) |
| 2011 | Ballabriggs | 10 | 11-00 | 14/1 | D. McCain (UK) |
| 2010 | Don’t Push It | 10 | 11-05 | 10/1 | J. O’Neill (UK) |
(Note: The 2020 race was cancelled due to the pandemic)
Final Tip for Your Shortlist
When you look at the racecard this April, take a red pen and cross out:
- Any horse aged 11 or older.
- Any horse rated below 150.
- Any horse that hasn’t run since January.
Focus on the 8 or 9-year-old Irish raider who carried a nice weight in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham last month. That is your modern Grand National winner.
